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Residents of the Big Apple will learn the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who runs and protects the country's largest city at a moment when the former president has threatened to deploy military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The contest has become an acrimonious face-off, marked by accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits in every poll conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as governor in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an race that could be critical to the direction that the party, floundering in its response to Trump's power moves, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to Americans' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the party arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a surprising comeback win, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an force of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate personally. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in last year, few had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had married a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered some challenges in recent days, after footage emerged suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a DSA gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd