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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It commonly acts as a form of apology. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the biggest improvement receives the prize. In reality, it creates an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or merely the biggest upset.

However this year's competition is distinctly unique. The pool of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning division winners declining and longtime underperformers ascending together. In an ordinary season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this chaotic and entertaining season, he's up against five other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent performance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure magic out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost each gamble – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet the current is not a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial hot start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still